How to evaluate the prospects for business development? Reason for optimism

23.11.2020

Moscow, Jun 30 - RIA Novosti. The Russian economy by the end of the first half of the year was noticeably revived - in May, the GDP growth in annual terms accelerated compared with April almost twice, consumer demand tries to consolidate in the positive zone after two years of recession, confident growth demonstrates investments. The outlined trends will continue in the third quarter, but the economy can hardly show the annual growth rates above 2% by the end of September, consider RIA news analysts.

According to Rosstat, the Russian GDP in the first quarter of 2017 grew by 0.5% in annual terms. According to the results of the first five months of the year, according to the estimates of the Ministry of Economic Development, the economy has reached an increase of 1.3% to the same period last year; In May, GDP accelerated to 3.1% in annual terms after 1.7% in April.

The Bank of Russia expects that the economy in the second quarter of 2017 will demonstrate the growth rates at the level of 0.9-1.3% in annual terms, in the third - about 1.3%.

The Minister of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin is more optimistic and expects to see the dynamics of GDP above in the fall above 2%. According to him, the latest statistics make it possible to say with some confidence that at the end of the year the economy will show an increase of 2%.

"Regarding the positive results of the first quarter, if the trends are maintained throughout the year, will lead to really good final results for economic growth," the expert of research and prediction of Acre Dmitry Kulikov believes.

Reason for optimism

According to the consensus forecast prepared on the basis of a survey of analysts of banks and investment companies, the growth of the Russian GDP in the third quarter will be 1.68%.

"May data show that growth slightly accelerates and based on this I assume that if there are no new shocks, then the numbers about 2% do not seem any unrealistic, quite achievable indicator," says the chief analyst ing Dmitry Field. According to him, the ing forecast is an increase in GDP in the third quarter by 1.9% year by year.

A slightly more optimistic forecast gives Renaissance Capital - GDP growth in the third quarter will be 2.1%.

"We expect to see the continuation of favorable trends related to the restoration of economic activity in the Russian economy, including against the background of the transition of the annual growth rate of consumer demand in the positive area against the background of termination of the fall of real incomes of the population and the normalization of the savings rate," the chief economist in Russia believes and the CIS "Renaissance Capital" Oleg Kuzmin.

The chief economist of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDBR) Yaroslav Lisovolik also links the possibilities of economic growth with inconomic factors.

"Against the expected slow recovery of external demand, the main sources of growth in the medium term will perform intracocumenical factors. The preservation of the emerging restorative dynamics of consumer and investment activity will be supported by the gradual mitigation of monetary policy. According to our estimates of the annual GDP growth rate in the third quarter of 2017, will be 1, 3%, "he believes.

Approximately the same estimates give analysts acres (1.2%), "Uralsib Capital" (1.3%), VTB (1.5%) and "Finams" (1.5%). The most optimistic prognosis of Citi, according to their expectations, GDP growth in the third quarter will reach 2.6% year by year.

Base of growth

The restoration of consumption and investment is imposed on hopes and the Ministry of Economic Development. The minister even called investment activity - the main basis of economic growth in the coming years.

In the first quarter, investments rose 2.3% to last year. The Ministry of Economic Development does not exclude that the forecast for investment in the year will be increased from 2% to 3%.

Lisovolik expects the annual increase in investment in the third quarter will be 2%.

"The continuation of the downward trend of the key bet creates opportunities for economic growth in the second half of the current year both in the investment sphere and in the consumer sector," he is sure.

As for consumer demand, in May, Retail turnover showed growth in annual terms (0.7%) for the second month in a row after more than two years of fall. The Ministry of Economic Development believes that these positive trends are sustainable.

RIA news analysts expect that the growth of retail turnover will continue in the third quarter, but their assessments in terms of the annual growth rates of this indicator are highly collapsed - from 4.1% (URALSIB) to 1% (EDB).

"The growth of the retail turnover will be facilitated by the preservation of unemployment at a low level, the growth of real wages and a gradual transition of the population from the savings to the consumer model of behavior," the Lisovolik believes.

According to Kulikov from an acre, consumption cannot be a growth driver in 2017, including in connection with the continued fall in real incomes of the population.

Weather shock

The prolonged spring and the atypical cold summer spoiled not only the mood of the Russians, but also somewhat smeared the inflationary dynamics. According to Rosstat, due to the rise in prices for vegetables, food inflation in the Russian Federation in May in an annualized expression accelerated to 3.9% from 3.6% in April.

The Ministry of Economic Development expects that in July-August, prices for vegetable products will go down after the arrival of a new harvest on the market.

According to the field from Ing, it is difficult to evaluate how the weather whimsions will affect the dynamics of consumer prices as a whole. "Our previous forecast was 3.8%, but, given that now the growth is somewhat more due to fruit and vegetable products, maybe we will be closer to 4%. But now it is too early to talk, how much weather shock will be large-scale," he noted .

The forecasts of analysts for inflation in annual terms at the end of September range from 3.8% to 4.3%.

"Even if the dynamics of prices for the remaining months will be relatively unfavorable due to the force majeure of volatile food prices, the" reserve "of January-March will save, although it will mean a slower decline in the key bet," the kelits from the acre are confident.

The ruble is stable

According to the consensus forecast, the ruble exchange rate in the third quarter will average 59.3 rubles per dollar.

The ruble can relax a bit to 61 rubles per dollar to the end of the quarter against the background of the seasonal deficit of the current account balance account and continuing the purchase of the currency of the Ministry of Finance of Russia, Kuzmin is from Renaissance Capital.

At the same time, according to Oreshkina, the preservation of high oil prices, which are now being observed in the market, can cause a forecast in August towards strengthening the ruble, but the changes will not be a cardinal.

Oil risks

Agreements achieved by exporting countries agreements on the extension of reducing oil production by the end of March 2018 became positive, but insufficient conditions for stabilizing the oil market, analysts consider.

Presenting on Thursday at a government meeting Scenario conditions for 2018-2020, the head of the Ministry of Economic Development noted that high volatility was observed in the market of raw materials.

Additional oil volumes incurred by increasing production in Libya, Nigeria and the United States, carrying serious risks, therefore the level of oil prices in $ 40 per barrel in real expression looks reasonable, Nogshkin looks like.

The basic forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development comes from the average annual oil price of Urals in 2017, $ 45.6 per barrel, in 2018 - 40.8 dollars, in 2019 and 2020 41.6 and $ 42.4 per barrel.

It does not add optimism to the market and enhancing geopolitical risks in the Middle East after a number of countries ripped diplomatic transactions with Qatar.

"At the moment, it is not important to revise the transaction parameters (to reduce production - ed.), And the fulfillment of agreements, since the strengthening of geopolitical risks in the Middle East increases the uncertainty about the sustainability of this agreement and the further dynamics of energy prices," the Lisovolik notes.

According to him, the average price of the oil of the Urals brand in the third quarter will be $ 50 per barrel.

An analysts of the Acre believe that the average price of URALS oil in the third quarter will be at the level of 53 dollars per barrel; FINAM outlook - 51.3 dollars per barrel of Brent oil barrel.

Go to photo bank

The ratio of "oil" income and other budget revenues

Today I want to tell about the strikingly simple, fast and effective method Project estimates. Without a difficult analysis of financial and economic activities, without huge business plans, without expensive research. The method is so simple that it is difficult to believe that it is possible. And nevertheless, this is so. It is possible and it works. And I personally had the opportunity to make sure about it. If you at least once had to choose your market strategy or make a decision on investments in a particular project - you will understand what I am talking about.

Nevertheless, the number of hits with a finger into the sky in the form of failed projects is striking imagination.

The authors of the method, about which I will tell, rightly believes that " argument for ten thousand pages does not prove anything, because with such a volume it is impossible to notice all the hidden contradictions" And many of this actively use. Gave a ton of paper - get, sty, analyze.

Many plans passed through my hands. Miscellaneous quality and volume. Over time, I learned how to catch the main techniques of unfair "business writers" and the main mistakes of conscientious enthusiasts. But my approaches were intuitive, albeit based on experience, but not decorated.

When I first met the method quantum-economic analysis (CEA, or "Ideas Audit", as it is also called), my first thought was: "Damn! It explains everything! This is what I knew, but could not formulate! ".

So, enough reasoning, let's see how it works!

The essence of the method is that the success or failure of the business project depends on the combination of three factors: product, company and market. More precisely from their level of maturity.

Each of these factors can individually be beautiful, but only knowing how successful the combination is, it can be concluded about the future of the project. Indeed, how many interesting products and inventions never have never seen your buyer?

"The situation with incorrect combinations of components resembles a medical pathology. Imagine a charming female head sitting on a thin neck of a three-year-old boy. And all this on the torso is quite a healthy old woman, from which the pumped hands and legs of the thirty-year-old man are departed. Each individually is absolutely normal. But, having connected them, we get an ugly monster. And the happiness that the monster is undesserved, since the blood supply provided by an old heart is not enough for the load asked by male hands and legs. And the weight of the female head just breaks the neck of the child.
Are you terrifying the monster described? Nevertheless, you see every day and do not notice around the companies that are no better. Moreover, even inside an excellent company often arise projects that fit into it as a beard in the girl's profile "

Everyone knows the product life cycle schedule (see Figure). The main stages are highlighted by a dotted line:

Similarly, as is well known, companies and markets are developing - the same S-shaped curve is everywhere.

The phase of the maturity of each factor can be evaluated on the scale, in the simplified form given in this table:

	Level of evolution
	0	1	2	3	4
Product		Industrial sample, ready for a tyriage. The product has proven its performance and potential.	Active product development, the emergence of new features and capabilities.	The product is brought to the highest possible characteristics.	Reduced characteristics to the level of the market required at the moment.
Company		Access to capital from $ 100 thousand to $ 3 million (garage, self-financing, business angels). Situational management.	Capital access from $ 10 million to $ 100 million (Invest. Funds, private investors). Regular management.	Capital access from $ 100 million (IPO, but not necessary). Bureaucracy, traditions.
Market	Bought only single enthusiasts.	Buys an innovative minority (but still do not leave the old market).	Mass consumption, leaving old markets.	Use everything.	Care of new markets remains a conservative minority.

Evaluating his product, its company and the market on which it is intended to operate on this scale, you can check the resulting values \u200b\u200bin this picture:

« Physical meaning"This scheme is also simple to understand: with the development of the market, all larger and more mature companies, which, thanks to their investments, are beginning to work on it, which are more mature and perfect products. Those. The principle is simple - develop or die. Improve your product and your business processes or stay overboard.

What else means? What young novice companies and "innovative" products (i.e. located at the beginning of their life cycle) there is a place to start in young markets, where there are no mass sales (and respectively, golden rain). Those. Even a good start does not promise you a sharp take-off. And God forbid you try to withdraw your "innovations" on mature markets.

It would seem - everything is obvious. But how many companies come across these traps ... Try to take your project (projects) and evaluate on this scale. All in the green zone?

As you can see, the method is so simple that it allows you to use it in the "stream" mode of companies of any size. It does not require costs - only honesty and some understanding of its target market. Unfortunately, I have not met him in any university-oops program or the IBA course.

Of course, my short article does not reveal all the nuances of Caa - it is only designed to cause interest in this technique. More information about the method can be read in the book "Quantum-Economic Analysis (CEA) or Science to win in investments, management and marketing" Alexander Schneider (pH. D.), Yakova Katsmanan and Guivi Topchishvili "(Feasibility Study Institute).

Moscow, Nov 15 - RIA Novosti. Three years old, the cryptocurrency will be used as a means of means of means of means of means of means of means of means of means of means of means of means of means of means of means of means of means of means of means of means of means of means.

In October, Evgeny Kaspersky stated that cryptocurrencies would work well in a single world, but the world is not ready for them yet. According to his forecast, after 300 years, cryptocurrencies will be "a completely stunning thing."

Analysts believe that it is impossible to predict what will be after 300 years with cryptocurrencies and related to them. At the same time, experts are confident that after 10 years, cryptocurrencies will not disappear, but, on the contrary, will become a new integral part of the global financial market.

Nearby future

According to experts, technological progress continues, the world is constantly changing, and these changes concern and cryptocurrency. Such a development is already observed today, they believe.

"I believe that Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are of great value right now, today. We do not need to wait 300 years. We must strive for the world, where anyone, if he wants, can buy and sell cryptocurrencies," the co-founder and chapter says Exchange Cryptovalut Bitmex Arthur Hayes (Arthur Hayes).

"The only thing I am sure that after 300 years I will be dead," said the technical analyst of the Brave New Coin resource Josh Olszewicz.

As the observer-economist Maxim Blante noted, the position of Kaspersky "strange". "The essence and the meaning is exactly the fact that the rules are simple, unchanged, the same for everyone and are not subject to any effect. This is significantly right now and is not so significant in the hypothetical" uniform world. "To whom not to live Kaspersky, no one else From our contemporaries, "he said.

"Today, money is radically different from the fact that they were called 15 years ago. I am so old that I remember the times when plastic cards and payment systems were wondering. I remember and times when the Internet was not. To imagine today the life of Russians without them is difficult . Everything has been going on very quickly lately .... Already, Bitcoin, not to mention most of the altkoins that have appeared later (alternative cryptocurrencies formed as a result of the forka - changes in the rules of transactions within the network - ed.) Is not exhausted by the execution of functions inherent in currency. Therefore, to argue about the future cryptocurrency makes sense in the context of reasoning about the transformation of money as such. We can write about this whole book, "the expert added.

Director of the Center for Economic Research University "Synergy" Andrei Koptelov indicated that 300 years ago no one could even predict those technologies that are now actively applied. "At the same time, the rate of penetration of new technologies into our lives increases every year, and every new technological solution becomes in demand faster than the previous one, and that is why it can be guaranteed that cryptocurrencies will become an amazing thing in this century," he noted.

The expert believes that for 10 years, cryptocurrencies will survive many more takeoffs and falls. "It is possible that Bitcoin's place will be occupied by other financial instruments, and ordinary investors will lose their investments. But it is safe to say that there will be many more decisions on the basis of the technology of the blockchain for these 10 years, which will gradually change our lives," he said . The smokeholders added that for 300 years the concept of cryptocurrencies will change,

"The cryptocurrencies will become a new completely tool for the most advanced users among which, of course, developers, programmers, mathematics, global-businessmen. We are now in the form of Bitcoin, Ether and the rest of the cryptocurrency see the birth of a completely new market, which will create new products and services, Sale only for cryptocurrencies, "the founder of the portal Decenter Evgeny Gordeev shared his assumption.

"In 5-10 years, we will probably use crypto-mainstream to pay everything. The means of payment can be Bitcoin, and the state digital currency. People are overestimated what will happen in the next two years, and underestimate what will happen in 10 years . I think that after 10 years we will see national cryptocurrencies everywhere - they are easier to track, "said Olshevich.

"In today's realities, it is difficult to predict what the world is cryptocurrency in a year. For 10 years it is even more difficult to make substantive forecasts. We can encounter both widespread use of cryptocurrency and changing current financial and state institutions, and with the complete oblivion of this idea. But the last very much Unlikely, because the vector is asked, and the world's leading economies seriously work out this market .... With the speed of changes in our life, what is now, we will surely have completely new payment instruments (after 300 years - ed.), "founder and head of the rating agency ICORATING Alexander Kamshilov.

Russia has something to strive

A number of countries of the world have already opened their markets for cryptocurrency - digital tools based on blockchain technology. The most popular cryptocurrency in the world is Bitcoin. However, the authorities of the Russian Federation are careful to this issue. The Central Bank has repeatedly declared the prematurity of the admission cryptocurrency to the trading in the Russian Federation and warned of high risks of their use.

"Many countries, including Russia, limit the movement of capital, many fix or manage the course of their national currencies. Cryptocurrencies are of a cross-border character. They destroy the monopoly of states for money, and in this sense ahead of time. Now fully recognize and go to them, refusing Nobody is ready for a strong national currency, no one is ready. Go to Bitcoin - I don't care what to go to a foreign currency. At the same time, the creation of its own centrally emitted electronic currencies is not only possible, but it is becoming increasingly attractive for states, "Expert Portal Cryptolife Mansur Huseynov believes .

"The key issue in the financial sector is the trust in the currency and the convenience of making payments. As soon as the cryptocurrencies will survive all the" disease diseases "and will be released on uniform development without financial bubbles and proven volatility, the Russians will begin to use them in everyday life Along with the ruble and other currencies. Despite the legislative restrictions, there are areas of life, where the calculations of cryptocurrencies will become familiar with this decade, regardless of whether it approves this state or not, "the smokers believes.

"It's hard to predict the deadlines when cryptocurrencies will become familiar to most Russians, most likely 20 years will be enough if, of course, cryptocurrencies will be resolved by the state, and also provided with technological solutions that allow them to use any person," the expert suggested.

"A small part of the Russian population has already in contact with the world cryptocurrency, mainly in order to invest in the currency or projects that conduct ICO (public placement of tokens). If we talk about widespread use of cryptocurrency, it is difficult to give temporary forecasts. Much depends on the joint efforts of the state and many. Interested organizations, "said Kamshilov.

"Russians are already familiar with cryptocoluts. Russians are some of the best programmers in the world. They are definitely familiar with Bitcoin. If our society does not regress technologically, we will still be more interconnected with the Internet or similar networks, then cryptocurrencies will become ubiquitous." Hace.

Senior Alpari Analyst Roman Tkachuk expressed a similar forecast for cryptocurrencies, noting that the popularity of Bitcoin will continue after 300 years as "first cryptocurrencies". However, he warned that paper money would not disappear. "There will always be a category of citizens who carefully relate to all new products (whether plastic cards, cryptocurrencies or something else) - they are more familiar and calmer to use paper money," he explained his point of view.

Increasing the participation of the state in economic activity will lead to the fact that after six years the Russian real estate market will differ significantly from today, analysts predict

Commercial real estate rental rates in Russia in the next six years can grow 15-20% of the current level. In general, until 2024, there will be no significant speculative growth in the commercial real estate market. This is stated in the study of the international consulting company Cushman & Wakefield (C & W), presented on Tuesday to journalists.

The company's experts expect an increase in the role of the state and its impact on the Russian real estate market in the new six-year economic economic course. "Several major factors will affect the market - increasing taxes, strengthening state control for business, development russian production, digital economy, lending, cities development and others, "- the company's partner predicted, head of the C & W Research Department Denis Sokolov.

During this period, the trend on aging and moral wear of offices, shopping centers and industrial real estate for objects built recently will increase. According to Denis Sokolov, a new proposal of offices and the shopping center will be formed by reconstruction of objects built in the 1990s, and to a lesser extent - at the expense of new construction.

"In a six-year-old electoral cycle, the feasibility of the construction of a particular object will be determined not to its economic model, not resistant and non-profitability, but a role in a larger large-scale project or state program. The main bottleneck will be access to credit resources, and it is part in the state panel that will open access to these resources for developers. A commercial development will be an episodic character, occupying niche positions, "Denis Sokolov predicted.

One of the main factors that will affect the players and the commercial real estate market will increase the tax burden, experts of the company. "This means that the requirements for profitability and business margin will begin to rise. The survival of low organizal business and the industry will be questionable, "explained Denis Sokolov.

Strengthening state control and regulation of market markets and business analysts are also called an important and expected factor in the next six years. "The growth of the bureaucratic apparatus will lead to the demand for jobs, the needs of the personnel responsible for interacting with the regulator. In general, this will create additional vacancies. At the same time, Denis Sokolov sees in this situation the advantages for the office real estate market. "Additional jobs cause need for additional office premises, which is good brokers, developers and business centers owners," said the analyst.

In the next six years, analysts expect that the state will continue to support its own production. "The construction of industries that are stacked in the State Concept will receive a green street and access to financing," said Denis Sokolov.

Urban development will be an important factor for the next six years. "We see how Moscow changed. The social and economic consequences of these reforms will only begin to appear in subsequent years. Already today, you can state the death of the central business district of the capital, which was limited to the Garden Ring. We see decentralization of offices and an increase in the center, which is already limited to TTK. Within six years, the Moscow Center will go further and reaches the second rings of the subway, "the partner C & W summarized.

When assessing the development prospects of the enterprise as an object of investment in a detailed study, the main areas of use of funds mobilized by the enterprise through the issuance of shares and other securities (Central Bank) are subject to a detailed study.

Sources of information for carrying out such analysis are:

Prospectuses of the Emissions of the Central Bank, in which the issuer provides information on the implementation of projects provided;
Business plans and other official documents submitted to the Investor on special requests;
Other sources, in particular, feasibility studies performed by independent consultants and specialized organizations.

The ultimate goal of such an analysis is to confirm the validity and guarantees of the successful implementation of the intended projects, as well as the economic efficiency of projects and political, economic, technological and social risks associated with their implementation.

validity of the assessment by the issuer of the state of affairs in the industry;
the validity of the manufacturing, marketing and organizational program of project implementation;
the validity of the Financial Plan of the Project and the assessment of the financial risk of its implementation;
Evaluation of the economic efficiency of the project investment.

When analyzing the state of affairs in the industry, the investor should evaluate the reasonableness of the forecast of the development of the industry developed by the Issuer. In particular, the object of analysis is here:

Sales dynamics and assessment of their growth rate;
Potential competitors and the level of competition in the industry;
Competitive forces and weakness of the Issuer;
Potential consumers of products (services) of the Issuer.

The manufacturing program of the investment project should be analyzed in the following areas:

The level of novelty and complexity of the production process for the Issuer;
the structure of production flows, the presence of subcontractors and financial relations with them;
suppliers of raw materials and prices for raw materials;
the need for industrial equipment and additional industrial premises;
Structure of the cost of production (services).

Marketing plan, which is the most important section business PlanIt is analyzed for its validity on all components of the "marketing mixture" - product and pricing policy on the market, a set of planned sales activities and promotion of goods.

An analysis of the organizational component of the investment project is aimed at assessing the potential of the guideline of the enterprise or the project, its ability to successfully implement it.

As a result of the analysis of an investment project on the above areas, estimates of the validity of the financial plan can be obtained, including the following components:

forecast of income and expenses for the implementation of the investment project;
forecast in cash flow;
forecast of assets and liabilities of the enterprise.

These indicators are initial to determine the economic efficiency of the investment project as a whole, and the predictive values \u200b\u200bof cash receipts and cash payments are the basic calculations for investment calculations during the entire investment period.

For convenience of analysis, these values \u200b\u200bcan be presented in tabular form or in the form of a graph reflecting the time and volumes of financial revenues and payments throughout the investment period.

Table 7.17 shows an example 7.5. Representations of the expected cash flows on an investment project for the development of new products. In this case, the investment period is six years, at the end of which the collapse of this production is envisaged.

Table 7.17.

Expected cash flows

	Years of investment period
cash streams
1. Arrivals
1.1. Revenues from sales
1.2. Liquidation cost of capital
2. Platery
2.1. Main capital
2.2. Working capital
2.3. Production costs
2.4. Taxes and interest
3. Net cash flow

The graphical representation of cash flows for the example under consideration is given in Fig. 7.6.

Fig. 7.6.

Quantitative assessment of investment components, in particular, cash receipts and payments, represents a complex task, since each of them has an influence of a variety of different factors, and the estimates themselves cover a sufficiently long period of time. In particular, the following characteristics of the investment project are important for the example under consideration:

possible fluctuations in market demand for products;
expected price fluctuations for resources consumed and produced products;
possible appearance on the market of competitors, including products-substitutes;
planned decrease in production and sales costs as the new products and increase production extension;
The influence of inflation on the purchasing power of consumers and, accordingly, sales.

Therefore, such estimates are based on the forecasts of the internal and external environment of the enterprise. The use of forecast estimates is always associated with risk, proportional to the project and the duration of the investment period.

The assessment of investment components is also associated with an analysis of funding sources, moreover, for the purpose of the analysis of the analysis, special attention is paid to external sources, in particular, shareholder capital and planned costs of servicing the raised capital: the size of dividends, the frequency of their payments, etc.

Expected cash assessments and payments are initial data in investment calculations, the main purpose of which is to assess the economic effect.

For the purposes of justifying investment projects, various generalizing indicators and methods for their calculation can be used. The main of them are presented in Table. 7.18.

Table 7.18.

Methods of investment calculations and generalizing indicators

In the form of a generalizing indicator, investment calculation methods are divided into absolute, in which absolute values \u200b\u200bof the difference in investment and current costs for the implementation of the project and the monetary assessment of its results are used as generalizing indicators; Relative, in which generalizing indicators are defined as the ratio of value assessment of results and cumulative costs; The temporary, in which the return period (payback period) is estimated.

As a sign of accounting in investment calculations of the time factor, the methods are divided into dynamic, in which all cash receipts and payments are discounted at the time of the time of the decision to invest capital, as well as static, which are a special case of dynamic and can be used under the condition of consistency in the time of cash flows.

The method of the present value is based on the calculation of the integral economic effect from the investment project. This indicator acts as a criterion of expediency (or inexpediency) project implementation. In Western Literature, this indicator is called a net present value (NPV - NET Present Value).

The integral economic effect is calculated as the difference in discounted cash flows of revenues and payments related to the implementation of the investment project, for the entire investment period:

where With if, - receipts (input cash flow) at the time of time t;

With of, - payments (output cash flow) at time /;

E. - the discount rate (threshold value of profitability) selected for the investment project;

T. - The duration of the investment period.

Positive value NP. He examines the feasibility of the adoption of an investment project, and when comparing alternative projects, a project with the greatest value of the economic effect is more economically beneficial.

In this method, the value of the economic effect is largely determined by the discount rate of discounting - the indicator used to enable the time factor of the expected cash receipts and payments.

The choice of the numerical value of this indicator depends on factors such as:

goals of investment and conditions for the implementation of the project;
Inflation rate B. national Economics;
The value of investment risk;
alternative opportunities of investment of capital;
Financial considerations and investor presentation.

It is believed that various values \u200b\u200bof the discount value can be selected for various investment class. In particular, the investments related to the maintenance of market position of the enterprise are assessed according to the standard of 6%, investments in the update of fixed assets - 12%, investments in order to save current costs - 15%, investments in order to increase the income of the enterprise - 20%, risky investment - 25%. Depending on the degree of risk of a project for conventional projects an acceptable norm is a rate of 16%, for new projects in the stable market - 20%, for projects based on new technologies - 24%.

Although the choice of the discount value, which plays the role of the threshold (minimum) value of the capital return standards, is an investor in the practice of investment calculations, the interest rate of government securities is often used as a guideline. It is believed that at this rate, the state guarantees economic entities to return invested capital without any risk.

In conditions of strong inflation, the discount rate must also take into account the percentage of inflation (see (4.7.4)):

where EN - a discount standard, subject to the absence of inflation;

To her - Annual percentage of inflation.

Example 7.6.The following is the calculation of the integral economic effect for the investment project, information about which is presented in Table. 7.17, and the discount rate for this project is adopted equal to 0.5. Using the value method, we get:

Consequently, the integral economic effect of the investment project is estimated at 3.45 million rubles, which indicates the feasibility of its implementation.

Annual method (from English, Annuity - Annual Rent) is used to assess the annual economic effect, i.e. The average magnitude of annual income (or loss) obtained as a result of the project implementation.

Fig. 7.7

To explain the essence of the annuity method, we will put the integral economic effect of the investment project known to the integral economic effect - NPV. Then, as can be seen from fig. 7.7, the annual economic effect will be the annual amount of money BUT, Which, being discounted at the time of time 0, will be equal to the magnitude of the integral economic effect (see also. 4.2.5):

Since expression it is the sum of members of the geometric progression, then:

where B - the coefficient of total discounted annuities. The values \u200b\u200bof these coefficients are tabulated for different values. E. and T. and are contained in economic directories.

In this case, the annual economic effect of the investment project can be calculated by the formula:

For the example under consideration:

A special case is a method of calculating the economic effect on investment projects, which are characterized by the stability of economic indicators by the years of the investment period (constancy of annual revenues and payments), as well as one-time investment in the project. In this case:

where: / - one-time capital investment at time 0;

By = CIFO - Cofo) - Annual net receipts (payments), permanent investment periods.

Annual economic effect in this case can be calculated by the formula:

and for investment projects with a long period, the expression has the following simplified view:

The considered methods of investment calculations provide for the preliminary choice of the value of the discount rate E, Moreover, the value of the resulting economic effect largely depends on this choice. In this regard, the profitability method is of interest, in which the analysis of investment projects is carried out by the criterion of the internal efficiency coefficient EP (INTERNAL DATE OF RETURN - Internal return of capital investment).

In this method, the desired estimate is the importance of the value of the profitability of investment, in which the equality of zero of the integral economic effect for the entire investment period is ensured:

where EP - the desired internal efficiency coefficient of the investment project.

Then, if the internal coefficient of the project's effectiveness exceeds the threshold value of the capital investment profitability established for this investment project, the project is considered cost-effective. Otherwise, it is rejected by economic considerations.

Finding the desired indicator of the internal efficiency coefficient EP It can be carried out by selecting, graphically or using more accurate mathematical methods.

In particular, in fig. 7.8 An example of determination is given. EP Graphic method. For this, the indicator was calculated NPV. for different values E. :

Based on the found values, the schedule is built and the point of its intersection with the abscissa axis is, which corresponds to the approximately the desired coefficient EP.

As can be seen from the graph, the internal coefficient of investment efficiency for the considered example is approximately 0.7.

The liquidity method is based on determining the return period of investment (Pay-Back Period), which is

Fig. 7.8. Schedule of the NPV dependence on e

calendar period of time from the moment of the start of investment in the investment project before the moment when the net current cost of the project NPV. , calculated by the growing outcome over the years of the investment period, becomes positive.

A graphic illustration of the returned investment period is shown in Fig. 7.9, which presents the financial profile of the investment project under consideration under a discount rate E. = 0,5.

Fig. 7.9. Financial project profile

Thus, the results of investment calculations allow the investor to evaluate the validity of the issuer's development plans, the expected level of profitability and the level of financial stability of the issuer.

To estimate the profitability of the issuer's Central Bank, a method for assessing the potential of shares based on the system of indicators reflecting the quality of the Central Bank is recommended: