14.10.2017

Much has already been said about what Catalonia will lose in the secession from Spain. In this article, we bring together the highlights of the current situation and consider another important but rarely raised question: what will Spain lose if Catalonia becomes independent?

What will Catalonia lose?

European Union

Experts agree that Catalonia will not be able to join the European Union. Read more about this in our article.

Euro zone

Although the Catalan authorities assure that they will not abandon the euro, economists argue that the independent republic of Catalonia will not be able to continue using the single European currency, and it will have to launch its own.

Economy

According to the Generalitat, Catalonia invests in the Spanish economy more than it receives in return. If we talk about specific figures, then this is about € 16,000 million, or 8% of the autonomy's GDP. But, as economists say, this does not mean that the seceded Catalonia will immediately receive € 16,000 million. There are costs that are now covered by Spain (army, social security, pensions). Leaving the country, Catalonia will provide it with a surplus of € 8,000 million.

According to the results of studies of large investment banks, including JP Morgan, taking into account the above figures, Catalonia contributes not 8% to the treasury of Spain, but 5.8% (about € 9,000 million). After the separation from Spain, the costs that Spain is now undertaking will completely and completely fall on the shoulders of the independent republic, and then its budget deficit will be 0.78%. This is provided that after the declaration of independence, its GDP will remain at the same level as now - about € 200,000 million. However, experts say that the separation will lead to a sharp decline in business activity, a fall in the economy and a reduction in the number of jobs. Spanish Minister of Economy Luis de Guindos believes that the GDP of the hypothetical republic of Catalonia will fall by 25-30%.

European Central Bank

Withdrawing from Spain, Catalonia will lose support from the ECB. Knowing this, the two largest financial institutions in Catalonia (and Spain) - Banco Sabadell and CaixaBank - have decided to move their headquarters to other regions of Spain.

Boycott of Spain and "flight" of enterprises

Many studies, including those in Catalan, confirm that the new republic will suffer from a boycott by Spain. Since the outbreak of the Catalan conflict, many large companies have left Catalan territory, unwilling to risk their business.

According to experts, 80% of companies operating in Catalonia are international, and they will carry out their activities in the autonomy only as long as it is part of the EU.

According to the Ministry of Economy, Spain buys 40% of the products exported by Catalonia, and another 40% goes to the EU. In addition, 14.3% of tourists visiting Catalonia come from other regions of Spain.

Among other things, many Catalan goods are made from raw materials purchased in Spain. And these are far from all the facts that demonstrate what consequences await Catalonia if Spain declares a boycott of it.

What will Spain lose?

Population

First of all, Spain will lose 7.5 million people (and, accordingly, taxpayers).

Territories

For Spain, half of the border with France and several valuable natural and water resources will be lost: from the mouth of the Ebro River to a significant part of the Pyrenees.

The country will lose La Junquera, the zone that is currently the most convenient land road to Europe, and only the route through Irun (Basque Country) will remain, since all other routes are secondary or mountain roads. Andorra cannot be reached directly from Spain.

In addition, the country will lose hundreds of kilometers of coastline, the importance of which for the tourism sector cannot be overstated.

Most prosperous region

GDP of Catalonia in 2016 amounted to € 223 629 million - 19% of the total GDP of Spain.

In terms of employment, according to the National Institute of Statistics, in Spain about 4 million people are unemployed. If Catalonia leaves the country, the percentage of unemployed in the country will increase markedly.

Infrastructure

Another huge loss for Spain. The most important strategic sites that will cease to be Spanish:

• Airports. First of all, El Prat, which carries about 5 million passengers per month (data for August 2017) and ranks third after the airports of Madrid and Zaragoza in terms of cargo transportation. Also, the country will lose the airports of Girona, Reus and Sabadell.
• Ports. The port of Barcelona is the second in Spain in terms of traffic both in terms of cargo transportation (according to data for July 2017, 5.9 million tons of cargo passed through it), and in terms of passenger traffic (about 500,000 passengers). The port of Tarragona ranks sixth in the country in terms of traffic in the transport of goods.
• Production areas. Spain will lose such major industrial sites as Seat's factories in Martorell and Nissan in Zona Franca; the nuclear power plants in Asco and Vandellos i la Hospitalet del Infant (Tarragona), which generate about 40% of the total energy generated by Spanish power plants. The hundreds of kilometers of motorways and the high-speed rail linking the four Spanish capitals to Figueres and on to France will no longer be Spanish.

Two submarine cables from Telefónica run through Catalonia: one (309 km) connects the Catalan municipality of Gava with the Balearic Ses Covetes, the other (706 km) - Barcelona with the Italian city of Savona.

Innovation and Entrepreneurship

Catalonia is one of the most developed regions in Spain in terms of research and development (I + D). Of the 108,963 scientific publications issued by Spanish universities from 2006 to 2015, 25.68% are in Catalonia. It is followed by Madrid with 19.91%.

Barcelona has the fifth largest number of startups in Europe. According to this indicator, it is ahead of Madrid.

Last year, the Barcelona company invested 282 million euros - 56% of the total investment received by Spain.

The region also ranks first in Spain in patent applications: in 2016, 35.1% of the 547 patents requested in the country were registered in Catalonia. Madrid ranks second with 20.6%.

Tourism: beaches, mountains, cultural heritage

Last year, Spain broke the record for the number of tourists visiting with 75.3 foreign visitors, which is almost 10% more than in 2015. Almost a quarter (22.5%) comes from Catalonia: 17 million foreign tourists. Catalonia is 580 km of coastline with magnificent beaches - in summer; the snow-capped Pyrenees is one of the favorite vacation spots for winter sports fans; the richest cultural heritage, represented by the architecture of Gaudí, the works of Dali and Joan Miró, many UNESCO cultural heritage sites, valuable archives and national treasures.

The Barcelona defender has completely ruined relations with the fans of the national team.

"PIKE, YOU'VE VOKE ME"

Yesterday's open training session lasted only 23 minutes. The reason is the incessant whistling and insults. About a thousand people gathered in the stands of the training field at the base in Las Rozas chanted: "Pique, asshole, went away from the national team" and "Pique, freak, Spain is your country." Many fans brought with them posters, which featured even more obscene messages to the Catalan defender, and which were regularly taken away by police officers who kept order.

One poster still managed to hang for a while, it was written: "Piquet, I don't want you to leave, I want to be thrown out of the national team. You make me sick." Realizing that it was impossible to continue the training session in such an atmosphere, the head coach of the Spaniards, who also got a lot of whistles - for calling Piquet to the national team, took the team off the field.

PEOPLE'S LOVE

In itself, the Spanish fans' dislike for the defender does not surprise anyone for a long time - first of all, Piquet himself. He is used to hearing whistles at all Spanish stadiums outside the Camp Nou - for caustic jokes at Madrid, whose fans are the majority of the national team, for criticizing the Spanish government, for its clearly and clearly expressed radical position on relations Catalonia and Spain. It has already become a habit - like brushing your teeth when you wake up.

But this time, everything is much more serious than fan irritation over his next tweet or joke dropped into the microphone. Today, Piqué is the most hated national team player in all of Spain outside of Catalonia. Which, by the way, after Sunday "is not Spain" (though unofficially).

SPLIT AT REFERENDUM

It was Sunday's events in Catalonia that led to what is happening now with Pique in the national team's location. The referendum on independence from Spain, unrecognized by the government of the country, took place on Sunday and was remembered, in addition to the almost unanimous (90%) victory of those who voted "for", violent clashes between the civilian population and the police. The match “Barcelona” was under threat, which was nevertheless played, but with empty stands. After the game, Piquet, with tears in his eyes, answered the journalists' questions - and in his own words turned the whole country away from himself.

(Pictured above: A police officer with a Spanish flag on his sleeve utters the famous Piqué line: "He stays")

"I am Catalan, I feel like a Catalan. I voted for independence, but I see no obstacles to playing for the Spanish national team, because there are many people in the country who do not agree with what happened today. Playing for the national team is not a competition of patriotism, it is desire to give maximum strength to win. But if the coach or someone from the federation says that I am a problem, without hesitation, I will leave the national team and will not wait for 2018, "Gerard said then.

These words have thundered all over the country like a bell that "rings for you". According to the fans, such a statement put an end to Pique as a national team player, and, in addition to threats and insults to the player, the stream of abuse poured out on Lopetegui, who called the Catalan. The head coach of the Spanish team clearly explained his position in response: “I have no doubts about Piquet’s attitude and readiness to help the national team achieve new victories. I don’t understand why I should not call a player that corresponds to my ideas and is included in my plans. Here we play football, not politics, and my task is to gather and prepare the best. "

TEAM RELATIONS

Now, the first few days at the base passed in oppressive silence. The journalists immediately noted the silence that was unusual for Sergio Ramos - usually, as a captain, he is the first to contact the press, but not this time. In training, you can see that the players of “Real” eschew Piquet, who talked and joked, as if nothing had happened, with the rest of the players. At the morning press conference, all the questions were only about the Catalan, and both players looked tired and annoyed: "We came here to talk not about specific people, but about the national team. It's a pity that we are not asked questions about the game against."

On Tuesday afternoon, a meeting of the national team took place, at which Lopetegi insisted. The head coach once again clarified the general goal - getting to the World Cup in Russia - and urged to leave aside all other factors: politics, personal relationships and club addictions. As reported Marca At the meeting, Piquet did not raise the issue of his retirement from the national team, but Lopetegui specifically noted for him that all players of the national team must follow the rules of the Spanish Football Federation and understand what is behind wearing the national team jersey. All players were asked in interviews not to touch on political topics and not talk about the situation around Piquet.

According to the publication, Ramos and Piquet talked with each other and, being antagonists in political views, agreed that football is what they have in common, and that they are determined to fight side by side for the national team to enter the 2018 World Cup ... Defender “Real” admitted that the situation gives him discomfort, but sports tasks are in charge. The players promised each other to put their differences aside.

There was no doubt that Piquet, accustomed to everything, would cope with the pressure. It seems difficult, but still the peace between him and the other 24 players of the national team has been achieved. But what about the millions of Spanish fans, 30 thousand of whom will come on Friday at the Estadio Jose Rico Perez in Alicante to play against Albania?

Will they cope with the pressure?

The qualifying match for the 2018 World Cup between the national teams of Spain and Albania will be held on October 6, beginning at 21.45 Moscow time. ...

Straight. Three Catalan clubs play in the Spanish La Liga - Barcelona, \u200b\u200bEspanyol and Girona. Footballers from Catalonia also have Spanish citizenship and are called up to the Spanish national team. And any changes in the country will inevitably affect everything that concerns the Spanish Football Federation.

How will Spanish football change if Catalonia secede?

Players of the national team with Catalan citizenship will lose the right to be called up to the "red fury", as they will become members of a separate state. Most likely, the Catalonia national team will be formed. What will happen to the players playing for Spain is an open question.

But with club football, everything is much more complicated.

Perhaps the Catalan clubs will continue to play in La Liga. There are many examples of clubs from city-states or countries with a small population competing in the championships of other countries. For example, Monaco from the independent principality of the same name play in the French Ligue 1, clubs from Liechtenstein in the Swiss championship, and clubs from Wales in the English championship.

But there are options with the transfer of clubs to other championships. Here everything is more complicated. According to the Minister of Sports of Catalonia, Gerard Figueres, they will decide for themselves which championship to compete in.

“It is not known what will become of the professional clubs, in particular Barcelona. In case of independence, Catalan clubs playing in the Spanish championship will have to decide where they want to play: in the Spanish league or in the championships of close countries such as Italy, France or England. As soon as the clubs come to a decision, negotiations will begin with the federations to organize their performance in the chosen championship, ”Figueres said in an interview with La Gazetta dello Sport.

The likelihood of such an outcome decreases FIFA, which is clearly against. The transfer of one of the world's giants to another league will clearly give an impetus to the creation of a league where only the strongest clubs in the world will play. And the football federation has repeatedly opposed this.

An important aspect will be the fact that Catalonia is likely to be separated from the European Union. Then foreign players and coaches will need to apply for a visa in order to obtain the right to enter the territory.

A particular difficulty will arise with non-Europeans. As, for example, at the then defender of PSG Serge Aurier in 2015, when the British Embassy did not issue him a visa due to the lack of an EU passport.

How is the situation in the Spanish national team?

In terms of the atmosphere inside the team, everything is calm. On Monday, October 1, the national team began preparations for the final qualifying matches of the 2018 World Cup. So far, nothing prevents their implementation.

The defender of Barcelona and the Spanish national team Gerard Piquet has already supported the referendum on Twitter and urged the people of Catalonia to vote for the autonomous region's independence. The footballer himself is known for his radical views. For example, he never sings the Spanish national anthem and says openly that he will not. For this he was repeatedly booed by the stands.

But, according to the players and the head coach, there are no conflicts in the team over the political situation in the country. During the last flash interview, Piquet said he would leave the national team if he was accused of anything, but Julen Lopetegui supported the player and urged fans to refuse criticism.

Why can she be disqualified?

According to the Spanish newspaper Marca, FIFA threatened the entire Spanish football federation with sanctions for political interference in football. According to the source, the national team may be suspended from all official tournaments for an indefinite period, including the 2018 World Cup.

Chance of all this happening

The likelihood that the national team will not be admitted to the World Cup is small. Even if the Catalans get their way, it will take at least a year to resolve legal issues. Therefore, there are few threats to the performance of the Spanish national team at the World Cup.

The transfer of clubs to other championships is an initiative of their own and of other leagues.

How the Catalan players will behave is another question. But so far there are no rebels in the national team. Even the radical Pique has repeatedly spoken about his love for her, and Lopetegui called him part of the soul of the Spanish national team.

On October 1, the Spanish state may lose one of its most influential regions - Catalonia. Madrid intends to prevent Barcelona from holding a referendum on independence: arrests, replacement of objectionable officials and direct threats are being used. studied the history of Catalan nationalism and followed the preparations for the fateful vote.

Nationalism with historical roots

According to the established opinion of Spanish historians, Catalan nationalism is a fairly young phenomenon, taking shape as a political trend in 1922. The very same Catalans from among those who do not have master's and doctoral degrees will prove to you with foam at the mouth that their struggle for independence, based on the desire to separate their nation from the rest, is a matter rooted in antiquity.

Back in 1640, Catalonia managed to escape from the tenacious embrace of the Madrid court. Those who broke away then did not manage to live an independent life - they were quickly seized by the French kingdom as a protectorate. Without any special claims from the Catalans: it seems that since then in Barcelona they began to consider being under anyone's rule as independence, if only not under the hated Madrid. After 12 years, the Spanish government returned to the rebellious province.

In 1701, the War of the Spanish Succession broke out in Europe. The Catalan leaders bet on the Austrian Archduke Charles and lost. That war, however, they wrote down in history, perpetuating one of its dates in their national calendar. On September 11, 1714, Barcelona fell under the onslaught of the troops of the French Duke Philippe of Anjou, the future founder of the Spanish branch of the royal Bourbon dynasty.

Image: Public Domain / Wikimedia

The Catalans also tried to take revenge on Madrid with at least some fig in their pockets, calling the day of their defeat in the war the National Fiesta (Diad). There is hardly any other nation in the world celebrating its triumph on the day of the collapse of its own hopes for independence. But the Catalans do not have to choose.

The hypothesis that in Catalan nationalism the main thing is separation from Spain, and everything else is secondary, was confirmed in 1922, when “the first nationalist political organization advocating the independence of the region” was born - the Catalan State party (Estat Català) ... The founder and leader of the organization, Francesc Masia, said that "the Catalans have a compact territory, have cultural, historical, linguistic and civic traditions that allow us to define this community as a Catalan nation." It was then that the Catalans first demonstrated their intention to realize the right to self-determination. Moreover, Masia shared the idea of \u200b\u200ba kind of "Great Catalonia": he hoped that the state would include not only the Spanish part of Catalonia, but also the French one (Paris owned the historical regions of Cerdany and Rossillon, which he inherited in the Iberian world in 1659).

In September 1923, Masia, along with 17 other comrades in Estat Català, after the establishment of the dictatorship of General Primo de Rivera in Spain, left for France, where he tried to explain to his local brothers that he had come to free them from the yoke of French power, but his impulses were not appreciated there. Having lost faith in the "Great Catalonia", Masia made a bet on "liberating his homeland through outside interference" and began to seek help from everyone. In 1925, for example, he came to Moscow, where he negotiated with and with the expectation of receiving financial support from the USSR. The meeting, as they say, "took place in a warm and friendly atmosphere," but the ideologue of Catalan independence did not see any firm Soviet rubles.

In 1928, Masia quite successfully financially traveled through the Catalan diasporas of Uruguay, Argentina, Chile and, having settled in Havana, established the Separatist Revolutionary Catalan Party, of which he appointed himself the head. In 1930, the dictatorship of General Primo de Rivera fell: then the ideologue of Catalanism returned to Spain, determined to achieve the transformation of his homeland into the Catalan Republic.

Masia was very popular: that is why he was able to be elected to parliament - the Cortes. The party he represented won a majority: this allowed Catalonia to legally achieve the status of an autonomous entity within Spain. For this, Masia was forever elevated to the rank of heroes of Catalan nationalism.

The plans for the full independence of Catalonia were prevented by the civil war that began in 1936 and lasted for three years. In the confrontation between the general and the Republicans, the Catalans again had to choose the lesser of two evils, and again the choice turned out to be a losing one: the supporters of the Republic (and the Catalans along with them) were defeated.

The victor of that war, the ruthless General Franco, developed a firm conviction: everyone who lives in Spain is Spanish. He did not know any Galician, Valencian, Aragonese, and especially Catalans and Basques, and did not want to know. The last two ethnic groups were considered the dictators of the main separatist threat to his country, so he tried to leave the two regions inhabited by them without any democratic illusions, and even more so without claims to national self-determination.

Nationalism in Catalonia died down for almost four decades. A new upsurge took place only after the death of the dictator. In 1978, Spain adopted a new, democratic constitution and on its basis the region regained its autonomy status. At the same time, Catalan became the second official and “only historical language of the territory”. Then, however, no one seriously thought about independence.

In addition, Catalonia has received the status of "historically formed nation", awarded in Spain to regions that have a "collective, linguistic and cultural identity distinct from others." It is the fact that the rebellious autonomy has this status that allows the government of Spain today to assert that "the principle of the nation's right to self-determination in relation to Catalonia is fully realized", and no referendums on independence are needed. The autonomies of Andalusia, Aragon, the Balearic Islands, Valencia, Galicia, the Canary Islands and the Basque Country are also recognized as a historically established nation in Spain.

Aggravation of national identity

In 2006, Catalonia, under the guise of the just completed pacification of the separatist ambitions of the Basque Country, managed to raise its autonomous status to a new level, becoming the region with the broadest financial powers in the country. After that, in full accordance with the principle “the more you eat, the more you want”, in Barcelona they began to talk more and more often that it is time to draw a real border with Spain and become an independent state.

In 2009-2010, the then leadership of the Autonomous Community began to prepare society for the inevitability of parting with Spain. In the region, global social studies were carried out - a kind of quasi-referendums - but did not have the legal right to change the state structure. That, however, made it possible to obtain accurate information about the mood of the people and the prospects for the implementation of the program of supporters of independence. Hidden plebiscites showed that the idea of \u200b\u200bsecession from Spain was shared by up to 90 percent of the population.

For the Dyad 2012, Catalan troublemakers staged a "March for Independence", in which one and a half million people took part throughout the autonomy. Madrid endured the performance of the Catalans without much reaction, deciding that it was better not to notice the events than to do something in response. To tell the truth, the government had no time for the separatists: a crisis was raging in the country, the financial and banking system could collapse at any second, unemployment was growing at an alarming rate ... In general, demonstrations with Catalan flags and booing of the Spanish anthem by Barcelona fans in the King's Cup final has been decided was left without retribution, in the hope that all the steam will go off into the whistle.

While Rajoy was fighting to prevent the state from going bankrupt, the Catalan leadership unleashed one initiative after another, fueling "independent" sentiments in the autonomy. The central government felt relatively calm in terms of ensuring the integrity of the country: as an unbreakable trump card, Madrid had a Constitution in its hands, which provided that such fateful issues as the separation (that is, loss) of a part of the state's territory should be resolved by popular will.

That is, to leave Catalonia or not, the entire population of the kingdom had to decide, and not only that part of it that lives in the provinces of Barcelona, \u200b\u200bGirona, Lleida and Tarragona. This provision of the Constitution cannot be called illogical: the whole country should (or should not) lose part of its territory, therefore, everyone should also decide “to let go”.

It is clear how such a vote could end: the share of Catalonia in Spanish GDP is up to 21 percent, so the Spaniards will not abandon it. Everyone has somehow forgotten about this detail in today's kaleidoscope of events, having reduced the problem to a discussion of the question: is the center acting democratically by not allowing a referendum? Or should he take pity on the "purely human" independents and allow them to vote alone, violating the country's fundamental law?

Boiling point

As the date of the announced but still called the alleged plebiscite of October 1 approaches, the plot twists more and more. Many streets in Barcelona are a human anthill. The eyes are dazzled by red and yellow flags (the location of the stripes and their number on the Catalan and Spanish standards are different, but the colors, ironically, dominate on both the same). The columns of people are framed at the edges with black stripes made from the uniforms of agents of the national police, who keep order, trying to suppress manifestations of violence, vandalism, looting and other atrocities.

The demonstrators don't really hit the shop windows (at least not yet). At night, the separatist leaders also do not strive to keep people in the squares, explaining: “We are not in Kiev, we will not arrange the Maidan. We demonstrate culturally, chant, demand during the day, and go home to sleep at night. " From the tribunes of the rallies from time to time rushes: “Crimea is gone! We will achieve our goal too! " Such is the "correct revolution".

The media - both Catalan and Madrid, gladly put on the pages and air all the information that becomes public. Frank fakes are used by each of the parties to their advantage: some to demonstrate the martyrdom and sacrifice of the separatists (“look how they are authoritarianly pressing us”), others - to expose the enemy (“the separatists do not disdain to lie for the sake of forcing”).

Last Sunday, all of Catalonia (and the rest of Spain that joined it) was actively discussing a video from YouTube: the video showed a train carrying several tanks on open platforms. "To Barcelona from Madrid!" - the most zealous "separators" were indignant. The fake was quickly revealed, but some observers of the European and Russian media still seriously state that heavy military equipment was delivered to the capital of Catalonia and the Civil Guard introduced.

Although the Barcelonaians themselves do not confirm the presence of tanks in the city, and as for the Civil Guard, it is present in Spanish cities in everyday life, not only protecting order, but also organizing traffic. So, only those who are not familiar with the structure of the Spanish law enforcement system can talk about the special introduction of this force unit.

A police reinforcement was introduced in the autonomy - not really counting on the loyalty of the Catalan police (mossos), the Spanish transferred additional units from Seville, Ceuta, Madrid, Valencia to autonomy. The Ministry of Internal Affairs does not exclude possible terrorist attacks - in conditions of chaos, it is easier for jihadists to find an item left without due attention of the police.

The separatists and unionists exchange blows on the power field and in the media, like boxers who have plowed a dozen rounds in the ring, giving up on defense and striving to poke an opponent in the jaw by times more than they receive in return before the final bell.

The Catalan government issues orders and passes laws in favor of the future independent republic with almost machine-gun frequency. The central authorities of the country with an unprecedented speed (until recently legends were formed about the slowness of the Spanish judicial system) are responding with the annulment and disavowal of the acts adopted by the Catalans. Every morning Spain reads about “thousands of arrests of secessionists”. Closer to lunchtime, the media spread an official denial of this information.

The country's Prosecutor General's Office has opened a case and is investigating the preparation of an illegal referendum, which the most conservative press does not hesitate to call a coup d'etat. The head of Catalonia, Carles Puigdemont, demands to dismiss the case for lack of corpus delicti.

The central authorities have already warned more than 700 heads of administrations of Catalan cities and towns about their possible removal from office if a plebiscite is allowed. The head of the Catalan police, Josep Trapero, continues to carry out his duties of organizing and maintaining order in the streets, but said that he did not intend to obey the representative of the Civil Guard appointed by Madrid.

Law enforcement officers seized millions of printed voting forms, lists of members of election commissions and addresses of precincts, announcing the removal of persons listed in them from the voting process. The separatists responded with a promise "to occupy the polling stations a few days before the vote and not leave them in order to prevent police arbitrariness."

All Catalan politicians and government officials, accused of misuse of budget funds, corruption and embezzlement, are declared by the local authorities to be fighters for the just cause of the liberation of Catalonia from Spanish rule. The investigations carried out against them by the Generalitat (Catalan government) are called "monstrous provocations", and their unfortunate victims are promised full political, criminal and financial rehabilitation. After the victory of independence, of course.

Between Spain and Catalonia - another outbreak of mutual enmity, implicated in the centuries-old desire of the Catalans to live independently of the Spaniards. The Spanish newspaper El País learned that the Generalitat (government) of Catalonia has already developed a mechanism for the "immediate separation" of this historic area from the rest of Spain in case official Madrid interferes with the independence referendum in Catalonia. The decision to organize the referendum was adopted by the Catalan parliament back in October 2016. But the exact date of the Generalitat of Catalonia "reserved", that is, it is kept secret. According to some reports, the referendum may take place on September 24 or October 1 this year.

Secret law

El País reports that it "gained access to a secret draft of the" Law on Legal Transition ", also called the Law on Severance". “This is,” the newspaper notes, “about a document that will be used as an interim Catalan constitution. It will be in effect for two months, while the Catalan parliament will implement the constitutional process, which will culminate in the creation of a“ parliamentary republic ”of Catalonia.

And here is the main quote from the secret project, which is quoted by El País: "If the Spanish state effectively obstructs the referendum, this law will enter into force in full and immediately after the parliament (Catalonia) ascertains the existence of such an obstacle."

El País concludes that Catalonia intends to secede from Spain in any case: "with or without a referendum."

The press does not specify what the "secret draft law" means. Presumably, this is still a project that will turn into law at the right time. The fact is that the parliament of Catalonia, in which the majority belongs to "independants" (supporters of independence), has already carried out a reform of the rules of procedure of the legislative body, which now allows to pass the corresponding laws on independence in "express style", that is, in one reading. Thus, the legalization of separation from Spain will take no more than 48 hours.

Who about what

Official Madrid does not want to let Catalonia go. The Spaniards have their own historical grounds: they say, Catalonia has been part of the Kingdom of Aragon since the Middle Ages, and therefore Catalonia is Spain.

The Catalans have their reasons. They emphasize historical identity. They emphasize that they speak their own Catalan language, which, although included in the group of Romance languages, is markedly different from Spanish. The Catalan language is a real living medium for 7.5 million people. Catalans do not forget their culture, which was raised to the world level by such outstanding representatives as Salvador Dali and Antoni Gaudi.

And, of course, the economy. Catalonia, with a population of 16% of the total population of Spain, produces more than a quarter of the country's gross national product, as can be seen from the macroeconomic indicators of the last quarter of 2016.

Nobody but the Catalans knows what to do

But back to the skirmish between Spanish and Catalan politicians.

© AP Photo / Andre Penner

© AP Photo / Andre Penner

"They are blackmailing the state, democracy and the Spaniards. We do not accept this," said Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, commenting on the publication in El País. According to him, this is the "most serious" thing that he has seen "in his entire political career."

And this, however, is the most serious thing that happened in Spain not only during Rajoy's political career. There is a dead-end situation. It threatens to develop into the deepest internal political crisis that Spain has not seen since the civil war of 1936. And official Madrid really doesn't know what to do.

Arrest the leaders of Catalonia, such as the head of the local government, Carles Puigdemont? But how can they be punished? This has already happened and did not lead to the desired results for Madrid. The last time the Catalan authorities planned to hold an independence referendum in 2014. But the Spanish Constitutional Court ruled that it was unconstitutional. To let off steam - since the Catalans were eagerly awaiting a plebiscite - the Catalan authorities, backing down, replaced the referendum with a poll of the residents of the region, thereby changing the legal side of the issue, since the poll is not binding. One way or another, in 2014, they supported the complete independence of Catalonia from Spain.

But even the poll was previously called illegal by the Spanish authorities, and its organizers were punished. The High Court of Catalonia deprived the former head of the Generalitat Artur Mas of the right to hold public and elective office for two years and sentenced him to a fine. Other leaders of Catalonia were punished similarly.

It is extremely unprofitable for the central Spanish authorities to aggravate the situation, to carry out arrests on the eve of the planned referendum. This will create a halo of martyrs for the leaders of Catalonia, and the situation may get out of control even before the referendum. Although, in fact, even now the central Spanish authorities do not really control the situation in Catalonia. After all, the Catalans intend to secede in any case - with or without a referendum.

Arresting all the criminals after the referendum is even more stupid, since the will of the majority of the population of Catalonia will be evident, and the central authorities of Spain will look like satraps who stifle freedom and democracy.

Only Catalans know what to do. And they do by developing a concrete plan to break with Spain. And they have an advantageous situation - like in the game of tic-tac-toe, when no matter what the opponent makes, you still win with your next move.

A word to the critics

The Spanish press writes that Catalan politicians are now competing in which of them will make the steepest turn, after which there is no return. About a dozen people are said to be working on the development of a project for the withdrawal of Catalonia from Spain. They are headed by the former Vice President of the Constitutional Court Carles Viver Pi-Sunyer.

Meanwhile, the Spaniards have found many holes in the secret draft of the Catalan severance law. For example, it is not spelled out there who can become a citizen of Catalonia.

It is unclear which Spanish laws will continue to operate in independent Catalonia and which will automatically end. What will be the fate of the Spanish central government officials who live and work in Catalonia? What will happen to real estate and other property of the Spanish state in Catalonia?

"The authors of this draft law," writes El País, "do not take into account legislative acts and legal reality, as well as issues of enormous importance and complexity, for example, how the new republic will fit into Europe."

A Farewell to Arms! Hello EU?

Meanwhile, neither side needs to aggravate the situation to the point where people start thinking about taking up arms. The Prime Minister of Catalonia, Carles Puigdemont, is trying to soften the situation, however, standing his ground. Recently, he said that the referendum on the independence of Catalonia does not aim to destroy Spain, as Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy says. "Our demand fits into the constitutional framework. We are not talking about an attempt to destroy Spain, we are talking about the right of Catalonia to self-determination," said Puigdemont.

Why do Catalans, with all their fighting spirit, want to appear peaceful? They have long stated that in the event of a break with Spain, they would like to remain in the European Union.

This will be problematic in any case after separation. But in the event of armed violence, either from one side or the other, the process of Catalonia's entry into the EU as an independent member will be extremely complicated. Therefore, the "fight of two bulls" is likely to take place in a peaceful plane. Although, of course, nothing can be ruled out.

The European Union itself looks at the battle in the Iberian Peninsula with great caution. The only official response from the European Commission to information about a possible referendum was a warning that in case of separation from Spain, Catalonia will not be a member of the EU. In January this year, the head of the Catalan government, Carles Puigdemont, visited the European Parliament to put the "Catalan referendum on the agenda" of European structures. But Brussels is not eager to see Catalonia independent, especially as part of the EU outside Spain.

House of cards

So far, the situation is developing in the direction where the final destination - whether Madrid and Brussels like it or not - is the separation of Catalonia from Spain. At the same time, the "Catalonia effect" can play the role of a catalyst for other regions of Europe, where separatist sentiments are active. First, for Great Britain, with its still open question of secession of Scotland. Although the UK itself is leaving the EU, and the issue of its influence on the strength of the European Union has already been removed from the agenda, but still ...

Secondly, the separatists in French Corsica can perk up. Third, the League of the North is likely to become active in Italy, which for now refuses direct demands for secession and insists on the transformation of Italy into a federation. But this is for now. Fourthly, Belgium, which in no way can solve the question of who is more important - the Flemings or the Walloons - can also fall in two. These are just some vivid examples of smoldering separatist sentiments in Europe. In general, under certain circumstances, it may arise on the continent.